Greetings and salutations from Bubbe, just back from a
Destination Mah Jongg weekend tournament in Waltham (just outside Boston),
Massachusetts!
Who doesn’t love summers in New England? Apparently no
one—that is to say, EVERYONE loves summer in New England, as evidenced by the
tremendous traffic we encountered on the Mass Pike, Route 84, and the Merritt
Parkway, but it was worth every minute to spend time with a lovely group of 83
women and one man, all fixated on mah jongg.
By the way, Destination Mah Jongg is one of many excellent
organizations that run three-day tournaments. They are (at minimum) 12 rounds,
starting with three the first evening, three (or more) round sessions the next
day both in the morning and afternoon, and a final morning session on the third
day. Sometimes participants also join in three-round evening
“mini-tournaments.” Bubbe has been fortunate to participate in similar events
with Mah Jongg Madness, Mah Jongg at the Kalahari Resort, and Four Seasons MahJongg, as well.
If you want to play mah jongg to your heart’s content,
tournaments provide the perfect opportunity. Over the years, your Bubbe has
used the 48+ games as a way of testing hypotheses about her own play. In fact,
at every table I sat at, I whipped out my little hotel note pad and asked if
the other players minded if I kept notes.
This weekend, I was a
“West,” so I had a lot more liberty to take notes. It’s very hard to do so as
an East, because East’s responsibility includes keeping track of everyone’s
score sheet. As a West, I moved from table to table for all twelve
rounds. Everyone was very friendly and some were downright hilarious; I made
many new friends from New York, New Jersey, New Hampshire, Massachusetts,
Vermont—and some who even travelled from as far as California, Florida, and
Washington State!
Anyway…Bubbe took copious notes and will get into some heavy
details in later posts, but here are some very brief examples of what I tested.
JOKERS, FLOWERS, AND THE DEAL:
Everybody whines that they “never get any jokers,” but is
this really true? Sometimes you will get none, but other times you will get
one, two, or even three—based on probability and the total number of tiles available,
I estimate that a player will average 2/3 of a Joker and Flower per
deal.
How did this bear out in reality? In each of the 48 games, I
wrote down how many Jokers and Flowers I was dealt. In total, I received 32 Jokers
and 36 Flowers. Quick, get out your calculators: that’s 32/48 or 2/3 of a Joker
and 36/48 or 3/4 of a Flower. Pretty spot on, I’d say!! The most
Jokers I was ever dealt was THREE; the most Flowers I received was FOUR. And
guess what? In each of those situations, I won the hand!!
CHANGING HANDS:
It always drives me crazy when a bettor, in making her selection, wants to know what each player is “going for.” Because I pick and throw
so many tiles, and other tiles go dead because of other players’ discards, my plan
after the Charleston often has little bearing on what I end up playing. I estimate
that I change my hand after the Charleston about half the time (50%).
How did this bear out in reality? After the
Charleston I would look at my hand and think about which hand made sense for
THOSE tiles. I also recorded where my
hand actually ended up. Strictly looking at the hands I won, 46% were
exactly the hand I expected after the Charleston; 54% of my winning hands were
NOT what I expected when I started.
JOKERS, JOKERS, JOKERS:
This particular tournament awards a 20-point bonus for every winning hand
that is “jokerless”: I don’t mean a Singles and Pairs hand, I mean a hand that
includes Pungs and Kongs yet doesn’t use any Jokers (obviously a Quint needs Jokers).
That bonus is hard to get! I estimate
that most winning (non-Singles and Pairs) hands include at least one joker.
How did this bear out in reality? Of MY winning (non-Singles
and Pairs) hands, 92% used Jokers!! I only got the 20-point bonus once!
Of all the “regular” (non-Wall, non-Singles and Pairs) games at my
tables, only two were jokerless. In other words, fully 95% of all winning
non-Singles and Pairs hands included Jokers!!
WHAT WAS THE MOST SUCCESSFUL HAND?
I know everyone has inherent biases when they look at their
tiles. Some of us, like Bubbe, are suckers for a Soap—if we see a White Dragon,
we’re off to the Year section of the card! Others really love to play Winds, or
369, or Like Numbers. I often tell about a former student who would only play “Dots”
because she didn’t understand the Bams or Craks.
In my book, Searching for Bubbe Fischer, I encourage you to know the WHOLE card, not just
any one section. Don’t shy away from Quints or Singles and Pairs. Don’t let tri-color
(three suit) hands intimidate you.
So, did I stay in one section of the card? Was any one type of
hand more attainable than another? I will look at this issue more closely in
another article.
For now, I will talk about one specific hand that has
received a lot of “buzz” this year: “CR5,” otherwise known as FFF
1111 2222 DDD with any two consecutive numbers and matching Dragons. It doesn’t
require any pairs (as opposed to previous years when either the Dragons or the
Flowers were a pair); it’s easy to collect. Some say that CR5 is the most popular,
winnable hand.
How did this bear out in reality? Of MY winning hands, 31
percent were CR5! Among my opponents, 20 percent of the wins used CR5, so a
total of 24 percent of all wins I saw were CR5. That is ONE hand of over 60
on the card, and yet it was the winning hand in almost a quarter of all
games!!!
I think this kind of information is fascinating. If you do, too, please drop me
a line at bubbefischer@gmail.com
and ask me what else to look into. I love hearing from you!
Talk to you soon.
Bubbe Fischer
Thanks very interesting and informative
ReplyDeleteLove, love, love the statistical analysis of the game. Looking forward to the next installment.
ReplyDelete